Chris Brown Out of Jail Now, But Chances of Returning Are High

Chris Brown appears for a court hearing on May 9. He’s been freed from jail, but not from himself. (Photo by Paul Buck-Pool/Getty Images)

Brown, 25, must still face trial for an alleged assault in Washington, D.C. He’s unlikely to get the same kid-glove treatment he gets in Los Angeles.

Brown could face jail in that case. A conviction would also mean another violation of his parole in his 2009 assault of then-girlfriend Rihanna. In all, he could spend up to four years in prison.

But even beyond that his chances of returning to jail are high, based on recidivism rates for African-American males.

Within three years of being released, seven out of 10 African Americans end up back in prison, according to federal statistics.

That’s because jail doesn’t solve the underlying problems that put them there in the first place.

While Brown has advantages most African-American men his age don’t have, he still faces underlying problems with anger management and drug and alcohol abuse.

While he’s made attempts at rehab, he needs on-going treatment to stay on top of his problems. So far there are no indications he plans to continue in treatment.

Ultimately weighing against him is the fact that he has made the same mistakes over and over again. The solution is not simply saying he won’t do it anymore. Or that he’s finally learned his lesson.

His problems are clearly beyond his control without professional help.